What is the availability heuristic?

The availability heuristic refers to a cognitive bias that causes individuals to overestimate the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind. When people rely on the availability heuristic, they judge the probability of an event by the ease with which relevant instances or memories can be recalled. For example, if someone recently watched news stories about airplane crashes, they might overestimate the dangers of flying because those vivid images are easily accessible in their memory.

This heuristic often leads people to make decisions based on more recent or salient information rather than a statistical or factual basis. It emphasizes how memory can influence perception and decision-making, highlighting the role of recency and emotion in what comes to mind. Recognizing this cognitive shortcut is important to understand the potential distortions it can create in judgment.