What describes the "overconfidence bias"?

The "overconfidence bias" refers to a cognitive phenomenon where individuals overestimate their own knowledge, abilities, and chances of succeeding in a certain endeavor. It reflects a disparity between one's perceived competence and actual performance. When people display overconfidence, they may have an inflated sense of their accuracy or skill level, often leading to poor decision-making and greater risks in judgment.

In the context of cognitive psychology, this bias can influence various aspects such as predicting test performance, assessing personal risks, or making judgments about complex situations. Those who exhibit overconfidence might take on challenges or assert opinions without sufficient evidence or expertise, which can lead to significant errors and miscalculations.

The other options do not capture this tendency accurately. Underestimating one's abilities, for instance, describes a lack of confidence rather than overconfidence, while accurately assessing one's skills indicates a realistic self-appraisal, opposite to the overconfidence bias. Lacking confidence in decisions highlights uncertainty rather than the inflated self-assessment typical of overconfidence. Thus, the correct choice highlights the essential element of overestimating one’s own capabilities.