What cognitive bias involves focusing excessively on one event when predicting future happiness?

Focalism is a cognitive bias that occurs when individuals place an excessive emphasis on a single event or outcome when predicting their future happiness or emotional state. This bias leads people to overlook the broader context and other factors that may also impact their well-being. For example, if someone is anticipating a significant life event, such as a wedding or a job promotion, they may focus solely on that event and its potential emotional outcomes, neglecting other aspects of their lives that could contribute to their overall happiness.

In doing so, focalism can skew their expectations, creating an illusion that this singular event will have a disproportionate effect on their future happiness. This can result in disappointment when the anticipated event does not bring the expected level of joy or when other challenges arise that were not accounted for. The correct answer, therefore, highlights the tendency to concentrate too narrowly on one aspect of experience, which is a key feature of focalism.